【学术报告】
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报告题目：On the evolution of pre-flare dynamics in a 3-dimensional solar Active Region

报告人：Korsos, Marianna

报告人单位：SP2RC, University of Sheffield, England

报告时间：2016年8月15日（周一）上午9:30-10:30

报告地点：Y12会议室

报告语言：英文

报告摘要：

Here, we introduce and discuss the relevant properties and their capability to improve Space Weather forecasting of pre-flare behavioural patterns in typical solar Active Regions (ARs) by focusing on their evolution from the photosphere towards the solar atmosphere in 3D. The basis of proxy measure of our approach is the so-called, recently successfully introduced, weighted horizontal gradient of magnetic field (W_GM) defined between spots of opposite polarities closer to polarity inversion line(s) of an AR. The value and the temporal variation of W_GM is found to possess novel and potentially important diagnostic information about (i) the intensity of expected flares, (ii) the accuracy of onset time prediction, and (iii) whether a flare, with same energetic class in terms of the GOES classification, is followed by another one within an 18-hour window on the photosphere. Next, we will demonstrate how, by tracking the temporal evolution of W_GM, distance between opposite polarity spots and the associated net flux in the lower solar atmosphere evolves as function of height. We show and argue for that this latter temporal behaviour across the chromosphere-low corona has fundamentally new forecast capabilities. We found, that at a certain height the converging of opposite polarities begin much earlier than at the photosphere or at other heights. Therefore we propose and present a tool to identify the optimum height in the solar atmosphere for flare forecasting that may considerably increase the forecast time.

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8月09日