[2014-11-26]Forecasting flares by sunspot dynamics - A novel approach----中国科学院云南天文台

[Seminar]

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Title: Forecasting flares by sunspot dynamics - A novel approach

Speaker: Marianna Korsos

Affiliation: Solar Physics and Space Plasma Research Centre (SP2RC), University of Sheffield, UK

Time: Nov 26, 2014(Wednesday) 9:00 a.m.

Venue: Meeting Room (Adminstration Building, first floor)

Abstract:

　　 Flaring active regions are examined to identify diagnostically useful features for the assessment of risk, intensity and time of occurrence of flare eruptions. The target objects are sunspots. Their detailed data are taken from the SOHO/MDI-Debrecen Sunspot Data Catalogue (SDD). Our novel method uses an appropriately defined proxy measure of the magnetic non-potentiality at the photosphere derived from the observed line-of-sight component of the field. The horizontal gradient of magnetic field between two subgroups of spots with opposite polarities at the polarity inversion line of the active region is investigated. The value and temporal variation of this proxy contains sufficient information about the expected time and intensity of imminent flares. In addition, this new measure allows to track the free energy content of the active region. This method provides a novel, reliable and excellent forecast tool that may be applicable to other solar eruptive phenomena, e.g. to CMEs, for predicting more accurately Space Weather.

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　　太阳物理研究团组

　　中国科学院天体结构与演化重点实验室

　　云南天文台学术委员会

　　 2014-11-25